DENVER BRONCOS 2010, ACT THREE, SCENE ONE: Tim Tebow and the battle for ultimate figurative justice

And on the fifteenth Sunday, the Lord rested. For he hath cleared his books for the only professional football game he ever wanted to watch …

It has come to this, Broncos patrons. After either the timeliest twists of fate in the form of a Kyle Orton rib injury, or a well orchestrated plot to insert Tim Tebow while saving Orton’s face, Tebow gets the start tomorrow: 2 p.m. MST, December 19, 2010 A.D.

Can it get any more bizarre in this Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man of a destroyed Broncos season?

You can say these have been the crappiest two seasons in a generation. But you can’t say they are insignificant. The impact of what’s been done since January 2009 will affect (to some degree) the franchise and the NFL for several years. Franchise: reputation, wasted draft picks, draft pick deficit, budget deficit, quarterback quagmire, head coaching quagmire, front office structure, John Elway’s second NFL act, Bowlen as owner, the very existence of the Denver Broncos Way. NFL: how spread quarterbacks are perceived as NFL prospects, the wisdom in hiring smart but young head coaches, the wisdom in hiring a Bill Belichick disciple, head coaches whom control personnel versus the value of an alpha Vice President of Football Operations.

Oh, you didn’t know Denver was the center of the Universe?

(BTW, Tim Tebow = Cam Newton sans ethical discretions.)

I mean, my goodness. Since Josh McDaniels set his tiny feet on Denver soil, this has been a full blown, bored out, white knuckle, strapped in the back of a Ford Bronco as it barrels across Baja while Parnelli Jones hits the gas, howls at moon, cranks Pantera and guzzles Budweiser. Wire to friggin wire. Rob Zombie couldn’t chop it up like this.

Yet, one could make the argument that everything to this point, beginning with Mike Shanahan’s dismissal, has proceeded according to logic:

• You knew Shanny had gone all “absolute power corrupts absolutely” and was on the owner’s every last nerve. That’s the fastest way to get fired in America.
• You knew Bowlen would bring in an offense guy to replace him. Like he had done previously.
• You knew Bowlen would bring in one from a contemporary dynasty. Like he had done previously.
• You knew Bowlen would give the new guy all the power. Like he had done previously.
• You knew McDaniels would eradicate the non-essential components of the previous regime. That’s what all new guys do.
• You knew he would get rid of Jay Cutler because he was the primary imprint of the previous regime and, as fate would have it, also non-essential. That’s what guys who don’t like working with dudes-that-act-like-chicks do.
• You knew no matter how hard he tried he would implement the Belichick Way incorrectly. The guy was 32-years old and had never been a head coach on any level. Let alone Cutthroat Central.
• You knew the public would perceive these implementations, these changes, as mistakes. We’re basically a 24/7/365 flash mob.
• You knew he would make actual mistakes because he was a beginner and had no seasoned football voice in his inner circle. If you don’t know you’re history, you will when it repeats itself.
• You knew he would build his offense before he built his defense. Just like Shanny did, just like all offense head coaches do.
• You knew he would bring in rookie assistants who he either came up with or was related to. Nepotism is not confined to Denver proper.
• You knew, as function of default, he would incorporate some of the more unsavory elements of the Belichick Way. Warts and all, as they say.
• You knew he would draft Tebow right? The Eagle Scout and Earthly Saint. Two guys the world increasingly doubted. Mike Lombardi called it in 2009.
• You knew Denver would freak out if he didn’t win. A generation of fans used to winning.
• You knew all those former Broncos would prosper on new teams. They may not have fit here, but they didn’t suck.
• You knew he would botch his early drafts. It’s a rather complicated exercise that requires practice and consultation.
• You knew he wouldn’t be able to flip his assets for 100 cents on the dollar. Price discovery is basic economics.
• You knew ownership would stick with him for 3-4 years unless he did the one thing that is simply not allowed in any professional sports organization: implicate the franchise as cheaters. See: Rose, Pete.
• You knew Denver would go simply berserk once the cheating clouds gathered. Flash mob, but now with data.
• You knew that, because of the risk he piled on for two years, the likelihood of failure was at a critical point; the dude was leveraged over the moon. Basic probability theory.
• You knew, as all the preceding bullet points added up, and by virtue of that fact that you simply cannot switch horses 28 games into a rebuilding project that called for 64, that this thing was going to end ugly, terribly, reprehensibly.

And you had to have known—once McDaniels got his ass fired and his name was subsequently dragged through the mud—that it was going to come down to this:

Tim Tebow, Oakland Alameda County Coliseum, Week 15, a 3-10 record.

Oh you gotta give me this hyperbole. How much more symbolic does it get?!?!

(Wait a sec, yep … just had a premonition: It’s third and 15, Tebow is in shotgun, Denver is only down four touchdowns. The Raiders bring the house yet again because that’s what defenses do to rookies. Richard Seymour has been owning Zane Beadles and Ryan Clady and Daniel Graham all gosh darn day. Tebow gets the snap and Seymour slips the double team. For the first time he’s got a clean shot and full head steam with which to dismantle the rookie. Tebow of course knows this because he’s a lefty. Yet his eyes remain downfield. Seymour leaves his feet, launches himself, lowers his head and he looks like an obese missile hurtling through the ether! Only … what’s this? Upon impact Seymour’s fat ass literally bounces off Timothy Richard. In an instant the new starter calculates his downfield target and releases. It’s a goddamn first down and Seymour is left to wonder what the hell just happened. Divine intervention? Hellz no! Tebow is 250-pounds dude! That dumbass Raider just learned a law of physics, bitch!)

Yo, I know all Bowlen, Worm Tongue Joe Ellis, Eric Dudes-Village, and every other poor bastard drawing a Broncos paycheck want to do is win a game. Just one more. Just stop the misery, if only for a week. I know they’d rather try to do this with Orton because, in fact, that hayseed looking goober gives them the best chance. I know all Oakland wants is a playoff spot and a division win keeps them from elimination. I know the only reason the Oakland defense is currently doing back flips is because beating on a rookie quarterback gets them closer to a win and possibly some individual contract escalators.

But I gotta step out of the boardroom (adulthood) for just a moment here …

This is the Oakland Raiders, black and silver. Just be evil, baby. A vile, twisted amalgam of gristle and carcass. An organization so utterly putrid and silly that when I hear the words “Al” and “Davis” strung together, I guffaw and vomit at the same time. I gaffomit. The owner is a couple witnesses shy of a bona fide warlord. He prefers players as criminals. When he was in LA, teenage gang murderers used to rock his logo as a status symbol. (Though not all teenagers who rocked his logo were gang murderers.) He issues mandates that instruct cheap shots and therefore injuries. He sweeps the legs, Johnny! His psychotic minions dress up like Wes Craven’s mental ejaculate. The more you look like you just took the elevator up from a Sports Authority on the Ninth Ring, the better fan you are. If you roll into the Black Hole on Sunday with a Broncos jersey on, you will get your ass kicked. Badly. Lose some teeth, possible hospital trip. And they will take your wallet.

And who—of all the quarterbacks that could’ve been Orton’s backup, of all the stadiums the Broncos played in this year, under all the possible organizational circumstances, amidst all the negative emotional states Broncos fans currently find themselves in—is charged with stopping this encroaching shroud of filth called the Oakland motherf**king Raiders?

Why, it’s Timothy Richard Tebow, of course! Pfft … Are you sh***ing me?

Nah, it’s not just business for these fellas tomorrow. It’s Ray Lewis and a rumble is going down outside the club. It’s every player who wanted a Nike contract but didn’t get one, it’s that feeling you get when you just don’t want another person to succeed, it’s that grade grubber, it’s the NOOG who thinks he’s all that. It might even be a question of what side of the tracks you come from. That trench is gonna be semi-primal tomorrow.

He who stands for goodness and nothing else versus the Dark Side. I mean, that’s not a judgment call, right? Whether you side with him or not, that’s the image Tebow projects via sincerity or his staff or both. Same with the Raiders. They project an image of intimidation and 40-year-old Oaktown burnouts who shop at Halloween Express. Both images are well crafted. If only for the sake of the show, this is Good versus Evil in the clearest of PR practitioner’s definitions.

If I was asked to make something up, and the only requirement of that something was to to get you say WTF? I would make it up like this.

No doubt about it. It’s F’n on in less that 24. So bizarre.

DENVER BRONCOS BATAAN DEATH MARCH (i.e. TRAINING CAMP): It must be exhausting being Josh McDaniels (It’s exhausting to watch)

I was home for last year’s holidays when Denver gagged 44-24 to Kansas City on January 3 with the playoffs at stake. There is a cat that lives at said home. About once a day it wakes from a nap with a start, pushes out an otherworldly yowl, staggers around the living room then painfully wretches up a wad of fur slurry. It’s really quite disgusting. The gagging reflex really takes hold of him, involuntarily scoots him across the floor. He looks like Jim Carrey in Ace Ventura when he computes Finkle is in fact Einhorn. You kind of have to watch the whole process to make sure the cat projectiles onto hardwood instead of carpet. It would’ve been a sublime cosmic parallel had he actually executed this move concurrent with the Week 17 Broncos broadcast. They were essentially the same actions. The cat metaphor is particularly relevant to the Broncos because, well, cats are pussies.

Though the Broncos were once again absent from the post-season tournament, all was not lost for me at the top of 2010. The new decade ushered in two fantastic cinematic moments: Star Trek and Avatar. It really doesn’t get any dorkier when it comes to appreciating sci-fi. (Star Trek was released the previous summer but I didn’t see it until the holiday DVD release. In fact, I think I watched both the same day.) Star Trek is Lost co-creator JJ Abrams’s feature-director debut. It’s a ballistic take on the perpetual series that, despite its social stigma, rarely disappoints as a film. The most recent addition has plenty of mind benders but for the most part it’s a high-quality action movie. Avatar, of course, was James Cameron’s hyped release. From the same mind as the Aliens, the Terminators, The Abyss, and one other popular flick I wont mention, Cameron nailed his fantasy legacy to the wall with Avatar. One could easily postulate all Cameron does is make good movies. These two films also have something in common: Her.

Zoe Saldana. A ridiculously attractive actress even if in the latter presentation she’s merely motion-captured and expressed as a hippie warrior-Smurf. She slays as Spock’s down-low chick in Star Trek and in Avatar gave me that same sense of misdirected hetero-energy I felt when I watched Jessica Rabbit as a 13-year-old. Star Trek and Avatar: two radical things with an awesome thing in common.

A similar comparison could be made to the 2010 Denver Broncos. However, for this to apply, we need to step through the zero-point to the other side of the number line. It’s the negative integers at play here because at this point X is certainly < 0. Witnessing Josh McDaniels these past eighteen months, getting a look at what he’s working with here in the second week of training camp, hearing his haughty summaries and having to pick my jaw off the deck when I see the daily injury manifest, it seems to me the Broncos are currently dealing with two lame things with a crappy thing in common.

LAME THING I. Clearly, it’s the injuries the first week of camp. You could see it the second Pincers got here and I wrote about it at least 17 times in 2009: Thank the Laaawd above Pincers brought a new emphasis on defense. It was embarrassing rooting for those post-2005 defensive flowerbeds. They turned the concept of Orange & Blue Excellence into a synonym for ruin. I’m still feeling the pride in Pincers standard for toughness, however, is a physical camp causing these roster losses? It didn’t in 2009 but this year’s list is just bizarre: Dooms, Crazy Legs Moreno, Bucky, Chris Kuper, Jarvis Moss, and the veterans that may or may not be simply precautionary—Brian Dawkins, DJ Williams, and Jamal Lewis. Don’t forget Ryan Clady’s shredded knee as a function of pick-up hoops in April.

LAME THING II. A bevy of draft picks at the expense of existing talent. Pincers had 10 picks in 2009, five in the first two rounds. He had nine picks in 2010, five in the first three rounds. Both years combined he’s had four first rounders. Crazy Legs, Robert Ayers, Fonzie Smith, and Richard 2/3rds Quinn did about as much for the Broncos in 2009 as President Obama did for the American unemployment rate. (If they had good years, I would’ve said they did as much for the Broncos in 2009 as the taxpayer did for thrift banks.) Ponder this scenario: What if instead of Crazy Legs, Pincers drafted Brian Orakpo; instead of Ayers, center Alex Mack; instead of Fonzie, Rey Maualuga; instead of 2/3rds, Shonn friggin Greene. All those guys were available and I’m not cherry picking them based on impressive rookie campaigns. Hindsight is of course 20/20 but two Aprils ago, as the 12th pick came up, I’m literally saying Orakpo. When Pincers traded into the top of the second, I’m literally saying Rey. What would the current expectations be with those guys in town? They’d be a playoff favorite of every maggot in America with a journalism job. It’s tough. We’ve all given Pincers a wide berth to see if he can get it done. We all accepted after Jay Cutler threw 26 gags last year that perhaps ditching him was appropriate. Not many of us were deeply affected by the expected loss of Brandon Marshall. In 1989, Jimmy Johnson traded Hershel Walker to Minnesota and begat a Dallas mega-dynasty. In all, he accumulated five players and eight picks. He nailed almost the entire exercise. He properly flipped existing talent and was carried off the field in January four years later. Ya just can’t help but wonder, in particular as it applies to Pincers’ rookie and sophomore draft decisions, if a bird in the hand wasn’t worth more than two in the bush.

THE CRAPPY THING IN COMMON. Risk. Pincers is loaded with it. Abandoning conventional wisdom in an effort to overhaul generally looks crazy. Jimmy’s move in Dallas, even looking back, was an insanely risky move. But it paid off. I wonder if he had any sleepless nights in the process. Or if he was so confident in what he had, so sure he was seeing the truth, he slept better for it. Consider the state of the overall economy in 2007. For more than two decades the system had been loading up on risk and all our lives and portfolios were temporarily better for it. Of course, the other shoe dropped in 2007 and we’ve been at economic DEFCON 1 for three years. The point is, risk is risky: you can leverage-up for the sake of the big payday, or it wipes you out. Billionaire Brit Richard Branson writes that the art of good risk is knowing your downside. Pincers is not stupid. He’s aware. The cliché about the hedge fund manager who can’t sleep on his positions comes to mind. Look at Pincers current risk:

• Front office: Two first-time helmers in Brian Xanders and Pincers. They’ve officially laid their collective sacks on the railroad tie and are currently praying they can get to the post-season and zip up before the locomotive arrives. Oh, don’t forget the first year defensive coordinator replacing Mike Nolan this year. You heard the one about Pincers brother from Kent State, right? The quarterback coach currently charged with developing the biggest diamond in the rough in the history of NFL quarterbacks.
• Quarterback: One he traded for Cutler, a second he traded for an effective running back, and a third he traded back into the first round for at the strenuous objection of 95% of the football speaking world. If Cutler somehow runs out of piss and vinegar and becomes good or god forbid great; if Pincers runs out of healthy backs while Peyton Hillis repeatedly converts third-and-short in Cleveland; if Tim Tebow ultimately fails to unleash his divine powers and walk on water in the NFL—Pincers is gone.
• Running back: A team with inferior defensive personnel selected the position with the most injuries and shortest career-span with the 12th overall pick last year. It remains to be seen if Crazy Legs is a legit running back, let alone durable. Furthermore, with Crazy Legs and Bucky firmly entrenched as one and two, Pincers rolled the dice and shipped out JJ Arrington for a special teams guy. What happened the very next day? 27 and 28 go down with injuries.
• Offensive line: It appears Pincers is going to start the year with rookies JD Walton and Zane Beadles at center and left guard, respectively. I like that Pincers spent some dough on gigantic pissed off brawlers for the O-line. They could grow into that group nicely but it’s still a huge risk to start off starting them in 2010. What if they wash out like his 2009 class? In case you haven’t noticed, the back-up plan in terms of O-line depth is a freaking farce. If the rookies can’t handle it, if Ryan Harris, Clady, or Kuper go down, it’s going to be a blood bath not only for Pincers’ reputation, but for anyone trying to make a living in his backfield.
• Tight ends: 2/3rds Quinn is the second tight end. Nuff said.
• Receiver: Peace out Beast, hello two rookies—one a first rounder—with broken feet. Both have already gone down, even if only for the short term. Hypothetically factor them out of the receiver equation in 2010 and you got Jabbar Gaffney, Brandon Lloyd, and lil fellas Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley. Seriously, I want to go to Vegas with Josh McDaniels. He’d get wiped out in half a day … and he’s a millionaire!
• Linebacker: Pincers takes a big chance and pays Dooms real cake, Dooms goes down for the year two weeks later. Risk at it’s finest. If Ayers can’t dominate like he says he wants to, where’s the pass rush? Please tell me that you have something more, Lieutenant. These two Marines are on trial for their lives. Please tell me their lawyer hasn’t pinned their hopes to a phone bill … Thanks, Danny. I love Washington. Also, I have no clue what’s going on a middle linebacker. This remains a mystery to me but oddly enough this seems to make this the least risky position group.
• Secondary: Awesome, but relatively geriatric. The backup plan here are the two safeties Pincers drafted last year and a cadre of lil fellas he drafted in 2010. David Brutun and Darcel McBath looked semi sharp in 2009. Risk appears low. Not so much at the corners. If injuries or wear-and-tear force a tipping point from age to youth for the majority of the schedule, it will effectively move the talent quotient from elite to serviceable. At best.
• Defensive line: $58 million wrapped up in a 34-year-old dude the size of an asteroid and two career backups from outstanding defensive teams. They are here to start and allow the young guys from 2009 to rest and develop. Jamal is going to get paaaaaaid to mentor if he can’t stay healthy. And what’s the probability of an injury? Justin Bannon and Jarvis Green are flat out expensive with limited timelines.

In total, Pincers needs one of three quarterbacks, a first round running back, a first round linebacker, a second round tight end, two starting rookie interior O-linemen, two rookie receivers, and at least two defensive backs to contribute in 2010 and soon develop into the core of his team. In the meantime, he needs four 30-something defensive backs, three expensive D-linemen, two already injured offensive tackles, an average-save-for-one-player receiving crew, and a fragile veteran running back to play the majority of the snaps and carry the team in 2010.

We’ve already seen three wicked snakebites in Clady, Dooms, and Arrington. And a simple review of how much Pincers needs reveals just how low the probability he gets what he’s rolling for.

Riverboat gambler.

No question the squeaky lil fella’s got a penchant for risk.

DENVER BRONCOS FIRST ROUND DRAFT: It’s as if a monkey was trying to conduct coitus with a football (but in a good way)

Go Pincers, Go Pincers ...

My first job out of high school was on a residential framing crew in the heart of Denver’s suburban sprawl. I got the job through my vocational buddies. You know, the guys that get to leave school after lunch if they have a trade that pays. I worked for a crew that had just come from the dead Southern California market. Dale and his brother. One day, while trying to lay out a wall so Dale could follow me with the nail gun, Dale noticed I was handling the studs with a lot of care. Inexpensive, expendable studs … I was pawing them like Mr. Spock, making things overly complicated and measured. Dale abruptly stepped in to show me how to throw around a stack of studs. He snapped at me: “You’re treatin it like it’s a virgin. You’re trying to f**k it. You trying to f**k these boards?”

Never mind Dale had problems actually clearing a payroll check; times can be tough in the trades. He had a point. And Pincers’ up, down, all around routine on the draft board last night reminded me of Dale’s wisdom.

How do teams like San Francisco and Denver know another team is trying to jump them? Are there facts at play, rumor, or is it just a gut move? For example, San Fran traded with Denver to jump Miami for the 11th pick and take tackle Anthony Davis. San Fran knew neither Denver nor Miami would’ve taken that guy at 11 or 12 yet they jumped up. Somehow San Fran knew someone was trying to jump them from farther below and they feared it was for Davis. Again at the bottom of the round: Denver trades down to 24, preceding them is New England and Green bay. Hoody trades with Pincers to jump up two spots. Obviously Hoody didn’t want that slot otherwise he wouldn’t have traded it. So we know Demaryius Thomas wasn’t his guy at that point. And it seems pretty clear that Green bay was not going to draft a WR in the first round. So how did Denver know someone (I bet it was Dallas looking to get Dez Bryant and Hoody gave the pick to his protégé) was legitimately trying to jump? The point is, what prevents Denver from lying to San Fran, or Hoody goading Pincers: “You better get up here, so-and-so really wants our slot and he’s offering this.” Seems like an opportunity for fabricated leverage to me.

Nonetheless, I’m digging the picks. I hated the Thomas pick at first but that’s because I hold a low regard for marquee wide receivers. Upon further review I think Thomas looks reedick and, it’s true, I like the T-T-T-Timmay pick. Half of my family is from Jacksonville and includes some University of Florida grads. I grew up in Denver, and since Denver is a BLACK HOLE for collegiate sports, I of course have always watched the Gators. My gut tells me Tebow will be good and here’s why: When you grow up watching the most clutch quarterback of all time (Elway), you develop an eye for weak-knees in the fourth quarter. Whether it was other QB’s around the league or the litany of slappies that followed 7, Denver fans have always been able to spot a knee-knocking quarterback. To me, Tebow doesn’t present any sign of a knee knock. It may take some time but I think drafting him was a wise investment.

And I don’t think it was a reach. He would’ve been long gone in the second round. (See: AZ, Minny, Chan Gailey.) Plus, it effectively only cost Pincers a second round pick; of which he had two to start the day. Simply by moving down in the first round, Pincers NETTED two additional third round picks; what Philly gave him for the 13th pick. The San Fran trade locked in Thomas at 22; giving up that fourth to swap with Hoody. He then gave up a second, third, and fourth to Baltimore to get Tebow. So Philly, more or less, paid for more than 2/3rds of the Tebow move. A second round pick: WHERE EVERYONE UNDER THE SUN CLAIMS TEBOW BELONGS.

Had Pincers picked at 11, no trades, today he would have one player, two second round picks, and a third round pick. After getting Thomas and Tebow, today he has a second and two thirds. Not bad in my book.

DENVER BRONCOS OFFSEASON, APRIL: Prepare yourself for another Josh McDaniels logic-derivative

Something is rotten in Denmark, as The Bard would say. Coach Pincers is telegraphing his draft by virtue of his vacant roster spots. It seems so straightforward at this point: middle linebacker, center, guard, snatch a wide receiver along the way.

Simple … almost too simple.

“Mr. Potato Head. Mr. Potato Head … backdoors are not secrets.”

Pincers would never be so linear. He’s got some derivative, a backdoor, a collateralized debt obligation, some kind of reverse-FOIL with which to apply his anointed form of logic. At this point, conventional wisdom suggests the following: trade down to the bottom of the first round to get Rolando McClain or Maurice Pouncy. Depending on that pick it’s either middle linebacker or guard/center and his preferred wide receiver in the second. At that point he grabs another WR or G/C with the pick he traded down for. After which he accumulates auxiliary playthings: more offensive line beef, a running back (only if he’s 6 foot 215 pounds!) and, of course, another wide receiver. Pincers has all the receiving hands he needs at the tight end position in Daniel Graham so I expect a journeyman third TE added somewhere sans-draft. If he can’t trade out it’s the same game plan save that extra pick.

(And by the way, I’ve grown increasingly negative about Rolando McClain as the eleventh pick. It’s too high. If Pincers can’t trade down he has to grab Pouncy here. There is too much MLB talent at the bottom of the first and throughout the second. McClain was a good hype-suggestion for a while and lord knows we need a true tip-of-the-sword at the position. But check his tape here on Youtube. I’m not seeing the next Al Wilson … in fact I see a slow softie getting mauled by SEC linemen.)

Either way, no matter what your interpretation of conventional wisdom may be, it’s not gonna happen. Prepare yourself for this: you will experience existence in another dimension this weekend.  It seems to me Pincers is telegraphing all these basic assumptions with purpose. Classic pointless diversion. Say hello to Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen! Say hello to a cadre of wide receivers and 6 foot 215 pound running backs! Here’s why:

Pincers fired Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Pincers was hired as some kind of offensive guru. Thus far, Pincers has shown an inability to get along with marquee skill players and his offense, his room, his scheme, is currently high-centered. He has shown neither a proclivity for talent nor an ability to field a high-octane offense. In order to save his job—as well as the fact he fielded a semi useful defense consisting of slappies last season—he needs to unleash some form of Tier One offensive effort to avoid the mob within and outside Dove Valley. (Much like what Mike Shanahan did in 2008.)

Here’s my issue: Denver is soft. Denver has been soft. Last year began with a flurry of popping pads and “Take it!” but late-season it was our same old Donkeys: no run support in either trench. I could give a frog’s fat ass about the wide receivers and the Tebows and the tight ends and for godssakes another tiny return guy with a blistering 40 time.

There’s a reason backup D-lineman and guys like Russ Hochstein can come to Denver and start: Denver is and has been depleted in the trenches. Last year Hoody gave Pincers Le Kevin Smith and Hochstein for marginal picks; he was loaded, he didn’t need them. This year it’s Justin Bannon and Jarvis Green; their former employers are stocked up and declined to re-sign.

What Pincers must do is wake up Thursday morning with one objective in mind: pissed off young linebackers, guards, centers, tackles and noses. Quarterback, running back, and yes, even wide receiver are all good in my book (fine, he can pick up some slappy WRs in the late rounds). Corners, safeties, and outside linebackers are all good too.

Give it a rest, Pincers. We get it, you coached Tom Brady. It’s all clear out here: you can draw up your very own plays. But you gotta crawl before you can walk. The most ubiquitous football cliché is ubiquitous for a reason: championships really do begin up front.

Me personally? Get Dan Williams with the eleventh. Get the best guard/center and linebacker you can find in the second. Grab one of those receivers immediately thereafter. After the third, THEN Pincers can show the world he majored in math and played D&D in junior high.

Despite negativity being my tone of choice recently (I lost muh b-Marsh, muh Sheffles) I’m still really, really, really fired up for the draft. The only thing I’m bummed about is the lack of that big first day. I usually get together with bros, grill and thrown down a ton of beer. Wake up super hung and do it all over again with bloodies.

(I know, 15 and 88 had to go … there was no other way.)

(I’ll be back post-draft with either vitriol or high fives.)

(C’mon Pincers, get it done … you f**ktard.)

This guy … this dude right here … with the tiny hands and askew eyeballs and gigantic mouth… is driving me up the f**king wall right now

DENVER BRONCOS OFFSEASON, MARCH: Josh McDaniels would make a great Harry Potter minion

I wont bore you with the circumstances that led to this, but I finally read a Harry Potter book. The most recent release: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows. (Always reminds me of Homer Simpson’s adopted pig, Harry Plopper.) By circumstances I mean how I found the time to hammer down 800 pages of rudimentary British writing. What motivated me, though, was watching the most recent Plopper film on DVD. (Again, this begs the time question but lets skate over that.) The film—sixth of the seven part series—is actually semi decent. Not too silly. It gets dark. Fire and brimstone, some heavy death concepts in there, bit of suspense, highly respectable effects. The plotline is very dependent on the previous installments and when I finished the film I just couldn’t go without knowing how the saga ends. So I Wikipedia’d the series, got the body of the plotline as well as the ending, and felt sufficiently inspired to pick up the book.

If she's super smart and ultra wealthy, I find this woman very attractive

(Skimming Wikipedia also led me to some of Plopper’s box office details. Good god that four-eyed bastard is a cash cow. Over $9 billion worldwide for the first six films. That’s just the box office receipts. And that’s colossal. Your average cornball, somewhat successful romantic comedy that releases into theaters and stars big-time actors will throw off $150-200 million. $9 billion? That’s F**k You Money and why author JK Rowling’s blood currently runs much richer than the Queen of England herself. Warner Brothers is splitting up the seventh book into two movies, one in 2010 and the final in 2011. Easily $12 or so billion when it’s all said and done.)

As far as the quality of the book is concerned, this last one is pretty much just a Lord of the Rings rip-off. In fact it’s such a blatant rip-off I think it’s an intended homage. This being her final installment, needing an ending that would do the popular series justice, obviously imbued with a JRR Tolkien influence as well as maintaining a deep respect for her countryman’s work, I can see her sitting down with a Lord of the Rings outline then literally copying down semi altered line items as they pertain to her Plopper world:

• Suraun of Mordor is basically The Dark Lord
• Reluctant boy heroes responsible for the fate of human decency: Frodo Baggins and Harry Plopper
• Samwise Gamgee is Ron (comic relief)
• Gandolf is Dubledore (wise Wizard mentors)
• The absence of and resentment towards our protagonist’s wizard mentors, especially when the chips are down … yet forgiveness in the end
• Existence of a fellowship
• The unique mental connection between the protagonist and antagonist
• A shifting power dynamic (the world has moved from good to evil)
• A silly made-up language based on mirth and frolic
• An enchanted ring is now an enchanted locket; and the need to destroy this item as it’s a paragon of evil (though Plopper must destroy seven)
• Blah blah

I really could go on, easily a hundred more bullet points if I wanted to put you to sleep with fantasy minutia. Nothing wrong with it either. Crazy Brit is a billionaire. A young billionaire. (She was thirty when she finished the first Plopper manuscript.) All because she was able to coherently cobble together some figments of her twisted imagination and American consumers are suckers for the King’s English: Brilliant! Are you thick? She said at once. She cut across him. Blimey! And a whooooole lotta sarcasm. (No American could have gotten away with that series. America isn’t magical and a native author’s use of English would’ve been too domestic and uninteresting. Would’ve sounded like Jim Carrey at Medieval Times in the movie Cable Guy: “Dos thus have thou a mug of ale for me and me mate, for he hath been pitched in battle for a fortnight, and has the king’s thirst for the frosty brew dos thou might have for thus!”)

Why do I bring this up in a Pincers column? Two reasons: A) I went through 800 pages of Plopper in 48 hours, at the end of which I get a text from my dad notifying me of the Brady Quinn trade therefore I was inspired to post something. And 2) we’ve just about reached the time of year when a select group of young athletes find wealth along the same timeline as Rowling’s: The genesis for the Plopper series supposedly came in 1990, Rowling completed the first Plopper manuscript in 1995, it was modestly published in the UK two years later, shortly thereafter it was releasing in the States, in 1998 Warner Brothers purchased the film rights, and when the highly anticipated fourth installment was released in 2000 it obliterated sales records in both countries. 10 years door-to-door. That’s about the same as late elementary school to middle school and high school onto some college athletics then an epic payday from an NFL franchise.

I bench thee, Brandon Marshall ... I trade thee, Peyton Hillis

About two weeks into NFL free agency, just under a month until the end of restricted free agency (April 15), and a full month until the draft, let’s review our favorite NFL protagonist’s recent moves. A protagonist who, to me, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the Plopper fan base. If Pincers had more time, I can see him fronting for one of those Wizard Rock bands. The type that only sings about the Plopper world, all the members are dressed up as some kind of Plopper character, they all more or less sound like Weezer. They tour libraries around the US, have groupies. I’m not kidding, this exists. Wizard Rock is an official genre. Someone followed these fantasy aficionados around and made a documentary about them. It’s worth a look if you ever start to feel like life is getting a little hectic and you’re not 100% on your game. (Relativity goes a long way when you need a self-esteem boost.)

Anyway, Pincers’ personnel blips this spring:

• March 3, “We look forward to their contributions during the 2010 season and beyond.” – The X-Man: Pincers locked away Elvis Dumervile with the highest tender and clearly put Brandon Marshall on clearance with just a first rounder. Love Dooms like everyone else and hope he gets his payday if and when the CBA is resolved. As far as B-Marsh is concerned, I just want another first round pick with which to draft a gigantic angry athletic fat ass. In case I haven’t made myself clear this past year, I want a Pittsburgh-style, smashmouth group of brawlers repping the brand every Sunday. Not cheap thugs, like the Raiders; not loudmouthed and ignorant, like the Chargers; but a bunch of dudes that dictate the physical tone every week. Not the first six weeks, then peter out. But a squad built for the long haul. Pretty sure Pincers does too. It’s been pretty quite on the Marshall RFA front, and offer sheets must be proffered by April 15. The market for Marshall hasn’t yet been set and from out here it looks as if the Broncos are getting lowballed. If he goes, if he stays, I think we can expect some draft action at WR because he’s gone as soon as Pincers can get market value for him whether that’s 2010, 2011, and so on. (And of course Marshall’s testimony in the Willie Clark trial affects the haste in which Marshall needs to get out of town. Sad but true, listen here if you haven’t already. Crazy world.)

• March 4, “Around here, we’ve got something more powerful than Drano. See, all we do is hang a picture of Thelma’s face over the drain, and the clog goes away. We call it: Thelmo!” – JJ from Good Times: JJ Arrington makes his way back to the League in a Donkey uniform after sitting out a full season recovering from microfracture surgery. Thus, Arrington maintains Pincers’ preferred running back body style: around 5-9”, about 215 pounds. (Pincers thinks 215 is big, remember.) So we have Crazy Legs Moreno, Bucky, and JJ from Good Times. All the same size, all versatile, blah blah. You go, Pincers. After shipping off running back Peyton Hillis (Pincers: Hey Mike, this is Joshy Washy in Denver / Holmgren: Hello, Joshy Washy / Pincers: Say, I’ll trade you one of my toughest players for the biggest pansy on your roster, you game? / Holmgren: Oh hell yeah!) we can expect some kind of draft action at this position, as well … Wait! I’m seeing something … about 215 pounds … versatile … around 5-9” … yep … set your watch by it. To be clear, I’m not entirely down on the early season green shoots emerging from the once fertile running-game land that Pincers singlehandedly turned to scorched earth last year. At this point I could care less about the back: Pincers is going to do what he wants, when he wants, and he’ll do things just to show the world he alone is at the helm. (Yes, I really feel that way. I honestly think Pincers is that childish and unprofessional. How else can you explain Lamont Jordan getting carries over Hillis in the second Raiders game?) Pincers was never going to give Hillis the ball ever again so help him God. So I’m happy for Hillis, love that ‘neck and hope he gets a chance to show off his wares. What I’m really fired about, though, is the move to unadulterated girth on the offensive line. What the Denver Post would call a “power” running style. (Pfft.) In the here and now, at the end of March, when we talk about new developments in the Broncos running game, we’re talking about the status of the offensive line.

• Which by my calculations is currently missing a few pieces: Wigs and Hambone are long gone. Assuming Ryan Harris makes a full recovery, the tackles are of course all set. It seems clear now that Harris is injury prone and that Tyler Polumbus is semi useless. As the roster stands now, another in-season injury to Harris or Ryan Clady will present some hairy issues. After getting a first round tender Chris Kuper appears to be the incumbent at right guard. Though re-signed, Russ Hochstein is a utility player, at best. And it seems highly doubtful second-year guy Seth Olson can step in at guard/center with passable results. This leaves the new “power” line short a couple players. Gimme Kevin Mawae, if only for a season. The chippy 39-year-old center could breath some life into the formerly finesse unit. He would also instill the correct attitude in the new guy Pincers will draft high next month. Mawae is the president of the players union and he’s currently bogged down in that morass. This plus his age preclude him from signing instantly. Seems to me a guy of his tenure would take his time so as to avoid an off-season that starts in March. Another guy to watch is unrestricted free agent Bobbie Williams in the ‘Natti. Dude is huge, pissed off, underpaid, and seasoned. The Bungles appear to be doing as much as they can to lock him down however should he turn his back on that godawful franchise and sign in Denver, just know that’s a pretty big score. And should Pincers land both he and Mawae, look out. That’s an impetus for contender chatter. (Williams, though, is from the ‘Natti culture. Not sure if that’s going to fly with Pincers’ do-gooder hero culture at Dove Valley.)

• March 5, Pincers signs free agent cornerback Nate Jones: “Next year’s value is not the same as this year’s value. If you feel you have the grade on Alphonso, or any player you happen to do that with, if you feel like he’s really worthy of a selection that you maybe would have made in the first round sometime this year, then I think you stick to your evaluation of the player. We don’t care what anybody else rated that player as, or valued that player as. The only thing that mattered is that we saw him and he was definitely worth the value and we went ahead and made the switch.” – Coach Pincers, April 27, 2009 in his post-draft presser. As Han Solo said in the movie Star Wars after succumbing to herd mentality and following everyone into the garbage shoot aboard the Death Star: “Really wonderful idea. What an incredible smell you’ve discovered.”

• March 5 and 9, three fat dudes sign: I know this is extremely negative, but I put the chances of Jamal Williams ever playing a meaningful down for the Broncos at even odds. That contract has to take into account his likelihood of injury. The big fella has slayed more Bronco carcass than Phyllis Rivers, a truly dominating fat ass when he was at the peak of his profession. But his time has come and gone: he’s 34, he’s massive with a deteriorating physical infrastructure, he’ll get hurt in training camp and will be hit or miss all season long. Think Tom Nalen in his twilight. I love the emphasis. I love the full-blown poundage added to the defensive line between Williams, Justin Bannon, and Jarvis Green. Denver effectively signed a new rotation that renders last year’s starters backups (save Kenny Petersen, of course). All the D-linemen will play, Pincers says so himself. When there is no freak of nature must-have on the roster, the remedy for that seems to be fresh legs. I consider Williams, at best, a tutor for Ronald Fields and Chris baker. I consider Bannon and Green upgrades though both are career backups. (Green, after backing up Richard Seymour most of his career, started for New England last year when the Pats defense was ailing.) See, normal teams, normal awesome teams like New England and Baltimore and San Diego, they stock up on big fella bruisers at D-line. Denver, however, under the previous regime placed a cursory emphasis at the position. Backups can come here and start because there hasn’t been anything in the chamber for a freaking decade. Pincers of course knows this, is trying to change it, and I dig it. It’s going to take some time to fully reload the D-line revolver again, but I’m right there with ya Pincers: the combination of wearing orange/blue on Sundays and being a pansy must end now. I’m talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this line, YOU DO NOT—

• March 11: Pincers cuts Andra Davis. I wrote last month that Pincers should keep Davis and trade DJ “I’m gonna stand here and watch Donavan McNabb run 30 yards on a third and 25 to ice the game” Williams. Any Denver defense anchored by Williams has been tragic and acutely weak. Davis was the captain in 2009, not DJ. And now it appears as if Pincers and Wink Martindale feel comfortable keeping DJ and moving overachiever Mario Haggan to the middle. That’s the existing plan … at middle linebacker … Am I just mired in conventional wisdom or is middle linebacker the most important defensive position on the field in terms of leadership, setting the physical tone, as well as pre-snap quarterbacking? I mean, that’s the cornerstone position of all defenses, right? Yet here we are at the end of March and Pincers doesn’t even have one on the roster. To me, it’s basically telegraphing Denver’s draft POA. Factor in Marshall, the offensive line, the Hillis trade, and the age and respective talent levels of the defensive line and there’s a pretty straight forward draft plan: Denver needs a WR for the future, at least two offensive linemen for the future, at least two defensive linemen for the future, and a fourth running back. Ah yes, confusion: how Pincers always leaves me.

• March 14, I said young man ’cause you’re in a new town: There I was, reading children’s fantasy when I should’ve been recreating outside. A fine March afternoon, Plopper had just slayed The Dark Lord and Tolkien II had taken me 20 years in the future where Plopper was hanging out with his wife (the sister of his best friend = gross) and kids. Then it happened: the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway came to Colorado. We all know the BQE sucks right? I mean, that’s not a point of contention, is it? First off, that guy dresses too well, works on his biceps way too much to actually be decent. In my humble, underground opinion, we just traded Mike Alstott for Johnny Weir. You ever see an interview with a super cheesy actor like Tom Cruise or Phyllis Rivers and they can’t even address a simple question without smiling and squinting and mugging and basically just posing for the camera? ESPN baseball analyst Joe Morgan would call this “getting cute.” This is basically what Rivers does when he knows eyes are on him and it’s exactly what BQ is doing in this introductory press conference at Dove Valley last week. Kyle Orton has nothing to worry about in 2010. Brady Quinn, seriously, couldn’t hit water if he did his best Greg Louganis off the three-meter. His accuracy is scary low: 52%. He’s thrown ten NFL touchdown passes in his entire life. Two words: Derek, Andersen. Of course, if BQ manages to become some kind of bona fide reclamation project, the low startup cost for undertaking such a project immediately vaults Pincers into super genius status. Mike Klis of the Denver Post reported last week that the Browns basically dumped BQ on him. For a running back he would never play, it’s a steal. A free backup quarterback. However, with the addition of BQ two things are certain in Denver in 2010: more women and gay dudes will be following the Broncos; and a decade-long tradition of mediocre quarterback play remains squarely on the horizon.

Gosh that was negative. Didn’t realize I had that in me. I’m actually pretty fired up about the Doncs right now. If I were to be perfectly honest I’d say that Pincers—no matter how enigmatic, frustrating, annoying, goofy, and downright useless he may be at times—currently has his team on the right track.

It’s just been a long four years, that’s all.

Sorry but, say what you will about the fantasy genre … this dude is 100% undisputed genius

DENVER BRONCOS OFFSEASON, FEBRUARY: The six players Josh McDaniels must acquire for 2010

In Super Bowl XXIV the Denver Broncos were folded, wiped upon, then dropped in a latrine by Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and the rest of the 49er Institution. It was a debacle the moment donkey rubber hit the Superdome Astro-road. And a devastating defeat for the Bronco faithful. The third Super Bowl slaughter in four years, the fourth overall. It was pure pain in January 1990 but at that point—after two decades of playing the overachieving nobody, pashawed as a team clad in orange uniforms from the tiny town of Denver, having never been a media favorite nor gotten its due in national coverage, customarily pigeonholed as Super Losers with a forthcoming Simpson’s episode to prove it—we were oh so used to it.

In Sunday’s Bowl, the Saints faithful avoided a likewise blow to its national and self-perception. They are henceforth champs. Decades of the worst kind of losing—culminating with a Biblical natural disaster that transformed the Saints homefield into a living District 9-esque national nightmare followed by threats from owner Tom Benson he would move the team to Texas—are now, insofar as the realm of perception goes, wiped off the books. The Saints took down Peyton Manning, they overcame the Indy Institution, they are one-for-one in Super Bowls. Much like 1997 erased the 80’s in Broncos fan’s minds, Saints fans are born again hard in 2010.

(Incidentally, the caption under Tom Benson’s talking head following Sunday’s win should’ve been: Top 5 Worst Owners in NFL History. I suppose it’s professional courtesy but giving that guy a winner’s forum after decades of losing was almost sacrilege. Benson is like the owner from The Natural: The Judge. Benson has never made a firm commitment to winning. His reign as owner has been a national joke. All the while he’s been whistling the decades away lolling on his billions like a muddy pig. I think Sean Payton overcame the Saints’ Epoch of Loss because he demanded excellence from everyone around him including his greedy owner. After Katrina, Benson couldn’t say no to him anymore. That, and like Wilford Brimley who somehow got his hands on Roy Hobbs, Payton somehow got his hands on Drew Brees. In the NFL, if the organization wants to win, it wins. If it wants to win, and it continues to lose, it’s incompetent. Benson is the poster boy for revenue-sharing welfare owners.)

Drew Brees plays a little pitch-and-catch after singlehandedly saving professional footbal in New Orleans

As my liver processes the last bit of beer from Super Bowl Sunday, the offseason officially begins. It’s all future tense from here on out. Happy times. I almost prefer the offseason to the regular season because the Broncos aren’t very good. And when they get beat—which has been exactly half the time since 2005—it’s somewhat taxing. Kinda, you know, frays my Sunday nerves. Every week it’s either confirmed or disconfirmed that the Broncos suck. But here in the offseason, when the FA-trade-draft possibilities take their hardly lucid forms, everything becomes 100% speculation. It’s whatever image you create for the future since the true metric (games) don’t take place for another seven months. It’s like porn: pure fantasy.

As such, I’m throwing in my two cents regarding the Broncos impeding moves. These two cents revolve around one very simple premise: The Denver Broncos only need six players to make the playoffs in 2010.

1. a 3-4 defensive end
2. a 3-4 defensive end
3. a middle linebacker
4. a guard/center
5. a guard/center
6. a guard/center

The offensive and defensive backfields are fine. Both offensive and defensive edges are fine, if not elite. The problem is the middle on both sides of the ball. I like the nose tackle personnel, though. I think Ronald Fields did well. I think Chris Baker could do well. I personally don’t see a need here. It’s the linebacker behind him, the ends on either side of him, and the guard-center-guard trio on the other side of the ball that I find to be a total liability. Bring on the beef, all I want are fatbodies in next three months.

The Broncos currently hold six picks in the draft:

• (1) 1st Round, pick #10/11 overall
• (1) 2nd Round, pick # 45 overall
• (1) 3rd Round, pick #80 overall
• (1) 4th Round, pick #111ish overall
  
• (1) 6th Round, pick #173ish overall
  
• (1) 7th Round, pick #204ish overall
  
• From milehighreport.com, a great article by the way
• Also, note what a compensatory pick is

Obviously, six picks isn’t going to get it done. Even if they hit on all six it’s difficult to believe all are ready now. It’s also difficult to believe the first three will be ready, however those odds are much better. In terms of premium players, I view the draft as a three round exercise. Plenty of players emerge in later rounds, plenty of players emerge as undrafted, and plenty of premium players bust. For the sake of argument I’m deferring to conventional wisdom. The first three rounds—the top 100 players— are where you generally get the goods. And for a team like the Broncos who need six players now, I believe it behooves Pincers and Brian Xanders to accumulate picks in the top 100. Specifically, they are going to need four high picks.

But first comes free agency and trade season. Here’s how I feel Denver needs to get down once we get to March 5:

• Get rid of DJ Williams. Hey-ohhh! I said it. With respect to the linebacker I mentioned above, unfortunately I wasn’t referring to Andra Davis. Davis is a badass, keep that dude. As athletic and talented as everyone says DJ is, he can’t lead a defense. Note the defenses he helmed in 2007 and 2008. Note the arrival of Davis and Brian Dawkins in 2009 and how Williams immediately deferred. DJ wasn’t even voted a captain. He’s overpaid, ultimately soft, and not nearly the kind of playmaker required in the middle. DJ nets a premium pick via trade.
• Get rid of Brandon Marshall. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, as they say. But not when the bird you’re holding is a loon. He’s had his chances. Never been to the playoffs, affects the locker room negatively, clearly he’s all about the M and the E. Furthermore, who cares about wide receivers? Look, they’re obviously critical, I get that. But is an A+ Prima Donna requisite material? Look at this ranking of the top 10 most productive receivers in the NFL this year. Six were in the playoffs, only one made it to a championship game, none won the Bowl. See the Week 17 Broncos game versus the Chiefs. The Broncos got blown out but receiving yards wasn’t the problem. 15 is a Shanny guy. Guys that don’t get it done in the clutch and falter down the stretch. Guys that just don’t fit with Pincers, no matter how talented. Get a first and a third via tender or two high picks via trade.
• Get rid of Chris Kuper. The bird in the hand cliché might be a bit more appropriate with Kuper because he appears to be a hard worker with zero issues. However, outside of losing Ryan Harris, the O-line’s 2009 liabilities fell squarely on the guard-to-guard personnel. Couldn’t stop middle pressure, couldn’t get short yardage … ever. Plus, Kuper is a Shanny guy. I believe Pincers should purge all the indoctrinated zone blockers–save the tackles, of course. Kuper nets a third via tender or trade.
• Get rid of Tony Sheffler and Peyton Hillis. They do no one any good flattening grass on the sidelines as the offense bumbles another possession. Swap them out for players of similar caliber that Pincers will actually play. The two should net at least two late-rounders and maybe even a premium pick: could they both go to the same place for a second-rounder and throw-ins? Unlikely.
• Get rid of Brandon Stokely. Love Stoke but, again, he doesn’t accomplish anything on the bench so get someone Pincers deems worthy. It’s a waste of money otherwise. Stoke is getting a bit fragile, as well, so lets hope some other team needs him bad enough they are forced to overlook this. He’s also relatively cheap. Denver has already paid the bulk of his contract. He’s entering his last year of that deal and is easily worth a late round pick.
• Sign Elvis Dumervil, Kyle Orton, and Matt Prater. Duh.
• Sign an established wide receiver. Denver missed out on Kevin Walter last year in restricted free agency, but he’s unrestricted this year. If we miss out again Pincers needs to find another Jabbar Gaffney type. Dare I say Donte Stallworth? (Gag, sorry.) Antonio Bryant, Dominik Hixon? Can we steal Miles Austin or Steve Breston from the restricted zone? Either way, there will be others. There always is. Like I said, I hold WRs in a low regard and considering what Orton requires of his targets—low emphasis on downfield acumen but sharp routes—the talent pool should be deeper specifically for Denver.
• Sign a quality 3-4 defensive end. Emphasis on quality. A starter. Has to come from the 3-4 and has to teach the rookie DE the Broncos will draft. Ryan McBean and Kenny Petersen are capable backups. They would be outstanding backups, actually. However they do not represent the inside pillars of an elite 3-4 defense. B+ at best. Jarvis Green of New England is unrestricted and makes the most sense in these Patriots-West times we live in. Derrick Burgess is also unrestricted but he’s that former Raider guy, and he didn’t start in New England. Richard Seymour will of course get the franchise tag so count him out unless you want to sell the farm (and I don’t). Because of the dire need here, Pincers needs to be aggressive with Green.
• Sign an established guard or center. This is huge because with the immanent departure of Ben Hamilton and Casey Wiegmann, leadership will be at a premium. Someone is going to have to lead the group so this cannot be a slappy. Kevin Mawae from Tennessee is far from a slappy plus he may be interested in molding a unit before he’s done. (And he’s just about done.) We don’t need tackles, which is a good thing, and there are good guards out there like Bobbie Williams of the Bengals. In fact Williams should come before Mawae based on who we could draft at center. Incidentally, what about Montrae Holland? I loved that fat bastard and he most certainly was not a zone blocking specialist. He currently doesn’t even dress for the Cowboys: zero 2009 stats. Not saying he should be the voice of veteran wisdom but I was impressed when he was here.
• Sign a backup tight end. This is debatable because I keep hearing a lot about Marquez Branson. He’s currently on the practice squad with the fabled “potential” moniker. One thing Pincers CANNOT do is sign Ben Watson. He’s unrestricted and he’s awful. I feel like Daniel Graham and Richard “2/3rds” Quinn can man the edge effectively. Shoot, DG only caught three fewer passes than Sheffler did in 2009 so obviously receiving isn’t part of the program. Just pick up a guy that’s pissed off and neglected. We’re fine at tight end. (Of course, saying Pincers CANNOT do something automatically means Pincers will do just that.)
• Gonna need to sign another running back or two. I’d of course prefer a late-round bruiser/sleeper but Bobby Turner’s eye is no longer in the room so those odds now default back to the control group. What’s done is done with Crazy Legs. He’s clearly the guy. Love Bucky but Leon Washington of the Jets is unrestricted. Plus, he broke his leg in a contract year and if the Jets hold on to Thomas Jones where does he fit with Shone Green? Similar style to Crazy Legs and Bucky so we know Pincers would be into it if the price was right. Perhaps he splits duties on returns, too. Also really like Chester Taylor who will be a UFA. Guess who else is a UFA? Kevin Faulk. It’s a virtual certainty, Bronco fans. I always liked Kolby Smith in KC. He’s restricted but maybe he, and others similar to him, come via cheap trades or low tenders.

The 1989 Denver Broncos pose for a team photo before Super Bowl XXIV

All that being said … Personnel losses: starting WR, starting OG, backup TE and RB, starting MLB. Personnel gains: starting WR, starting OG, starting DE, backup TE, backup RBs. Draft pick gains: It’s tough to say what kind of picks a trade may or may not yield, tenders as well. So I’m going to be a bit vague here as I try to shape my prognosis and load up on premium rounds. Which is of course what every franchise is trying to do as well. Marshal nets two additional premium picks, DJ nets one additional premium pick. The loss of Kuper, Sheffler, Hillis, and Stokley—at some point—yields one premium pick and two late round picks. (Did you see what I did there: four players, probably only Kuper gets you as high as the third round. However that’s debatable and through the alchemy of hypothetical negotiation I subtracted a late round pick to provide a premium pick.) Thus Denver enters the draft with the following:

• Seven-or-so picks in the first three rounds
• Five-or-so picks in the last four rounds

That’s loaded! A wet dream, really. But in the process we’ve lost starters so I’m doing the math. The way I see it, the team has gone downhill. They’ve been weak up front for so many years. And they always lose the same way. Something has to change. This is all obviously total speculation however I’m sticking to the premise that Denver needs six specific players to make the playoffs. Based on this premise, after the above signings and trades, what needs remain?

1. a 3-4 defensive end (signed via trade/FA)
2. another 3-4 defensive end
3. a middle linebacker
4. a guard/center (signed via trade/FA)
5. a guard/center
6. a guard/center

Therefore we need four players to come out of the draft. Four killers. Four ballers. Yet consider this, thus far we haven’t lost the DE starters from 2009 (though beta), there currently exists on the roster players to start at guard and center (though beta), and with the presence of Spencer Larsen, I submit the same is true at MLB (not beta). As Pincers and the X-Man comb through the morass to find their players, hypothetically they will have seven-or-so picks with which find an elite MLB, two elite inside blockers, and one elite DE. (And a little bounty of late-rounders with which to sign lower-tendered RFA’s in March or move around the draftboard in April.)

Check out the top middle linebacker draft prospects here. We all saw Rolando McClain at Alabama this year. Goes 6-4 and 255. Bama also runs a 3-4. The Broncos have a proud tradition at linebacker however it’s been dormant since Al Wilson went down. Too long. From my armchair this is unquestionably the guy (so was Rey in 2009 and he just checked into Betty Ford). As of early February, McClain looks like he will be available at ten/eleven. Check out the guard prospects here and the centers here. Then check out the size of these guys. I, like everyone else, am loving Maurice Pouncey from Florida (should be there in the second) and Mike Lupati from Idaho (second as well). Regardless, I’ve read the 2010 guard/center class is very deep. Give the 3-4 DE prospects a look-see here. Say goodbye to Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, they will be long gone when we get past ten/eleven. Click the full report on Jared Odrick from Penn State as he’s on everyone’s Bronco board. Also note the size of the top prospects, even Suh and McCoy, tipping the scales right around 300.

Of course, after all that, there is a fatal flaw I’ve intentionally ignored thus far. A monkey wrench the likes of Knowshon Moreno 09. I fear Pincers is going to take Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen with his highest pick. You know he will. He’ll do it because it makes no sense, and making zero sense is his favorite thing in the whole wide world. I personally look at these quarterbacks and think: Big whoop, what do they have that Tom Brandstater doesn’t? Aside from elite college programs, to me, they have nothing on Branny. Branny is big and MBA-smart with a cannon arm. Mold him, Pincers. That sixth rounder was a steal and just about the time Orton is coming offline, Branny will be coming online. And for the time being, Orton is A-OK in my book. (Unless we trade for Donovan McNabb, which I find ludicrous.)

Furthermore, is a first round quarterback bust really worth it? As a tenth or eleventh pick he’s going to get upwards of $20 million guaranteed. Plus the stigma … Do we really have to endure another national quarterback debacle? The risks—money, missing out on a player needed at another position, a first round quarterback bust in the team annals—do not outweigh the rewards. I trust what Mike Mayock of NFLN says about these guys: none of the 2010 quarterbacks are top ten.

(I also can’t account for when Pincers is gonna go Alphonso Smith or 2/3rds Quinn on the situation. The one where he shows of his math/logic skills by doing something that appears smart but nets the same benefits as a conventional move. Gosh I hope Pincers chills out sooner rather than later.)

So there’s the two cents. Total conjecture, totally based on surface information, nowhere close to resembling what will actually take place. But I’m sticking to my guns on the six kind of players the Broncos must acquire! The only people that really know what’s going on in a NFL draft are the evaluation staff and the bean counters within each front office. But it sure is fun to speculate. If for no other reason than we might be able to brag about our cuffed foresight and Pincers lack thereof as Denver wins one, loses one … wins two, loses two … wins one, loses one … for what seems like the balance of our lives.

C’mon Pincers, we need ya out here …

… for Godssakes the SAINTS just won a Super Bowl.

The Future From Fresno ... you know it's true

DENVER BRONCOS OFFSEASON, JANUARY: Slappy NFL quarterbacks break through as often as the best hitters in baseball

It appeared Pincers’ mind was publicly lost again when he made this comment at his 2009 presser-finale following the Kansas City woodshed appointment:

“I think (Brett Farve, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees) are really elite players. I think there’s also a level below that where you say, ‘These guys all have really good quarterbacks who win games and are very functional and do the things that their team needs them to do to win games and win championships. I mean, if you look at a lot of the Super Bowl winners this past decade, I don’t think you would say every one of those was elite when he won it. So I think our quarterback has done a nice job at doing a lot of things that we asked him to do. He can get better and improve, and I’m sure in the second year in the system he will be a better player.”

If Pincers life was a short story ...

Of course Dave Kreiger of the Denver Post pointed out two days later that this is only true with two quarterbacks—Trent Dilfer in 2000 and Brad Johnson in 2002—and that they were accompanied by historically ree-dick defenses. He notes that in the ten Bowls since 1999, 80% of the quarterback winners were elite. By Kreiger’s rationale, I haven’t the foggiest flippin idea what Pincers is talking about.

However, with respect to the past decade, I’m not so sure you could consider the other seven quarterbacks (starting in 2000, the tenth of the past decade will be played in a few weeks) categorically elite. Furthermore, I’m not so sure Pincers is strictly referring to Super Bowl winners. Perhaps he also refers to Conference Champions as well as merely Conference Championship Game participants. Isn’t it reasonable to believe that the four teams playing this weekend already consider their season a full blown success? And that none of these teams will face quarterback questions from their fanbase? No matter how many variables preceded 2009, wouldn’t we all be doing Maverick-Goose hi-low fives were the Broncos still playing this weekend? And wouldn’t we all be falling prostrate at the feet of The Mighty Ort-Bag himself?

Here are the Conference Championship Games this past decade. Included are the quarterbacks and, in bold-type, is my affirmation that the quarterback was elite. Not Hall of Fame elite, but at that moment of their career, that season, relative to all other NFL quarterbacks that year. (I would’ve used Pro Bowl appearances as data however we all know that’s a crock.) The score is included to indicate the winner. Also asterisked is the quarterback that punched through to win it all.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIPS

2000–01 Baltimore Ravens 16, Oakland Raiders 3
*Trent Dilfer and Rich Gannon
2001–02 New England Patriots 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 17
*Tom Brady and Kordell Stewart
2002–03 Oakland Raiders 41, Tennessee Titans 24
Rich Gannon and Steve McNair
2003–04 New England Patriots 24, Indianapolis Colts 14
*Tom Brady and Peyton Manning
2004–05 New England Patriots 41, Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Tom Brady and Ben Rothlisberger
2005–06 Pittsburgh Steelers 34, Denver Broncos 17
*Ben Rothlisberger and Jake Plummer
2006–07 Indianapolis Colts 38, New England Patriots 34
*Peyton Manning and Tom Brady
2007–08 New England Patriots 21, San Diego Chargers 12
Tom Brady and Phyllis Rivers
2008–09 Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Baltimore Ravens 14
*Ben Rothlisbereger and Joe Flacco
2009–10 New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts
Mark Sanchez and Peyton Manning

NFC CHAMPIONSHIPS

2000–01 New York Giants 41, Minnesota Vikings 0
Kerry Collins and Daunte Culpepper
2001–02 St. Louis Rams 29, Philadelphia Eagles 24
Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb
2002–03 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Philadelphia Eagles 10
*Brad Johnson and Donovan McNabb
2003–04 Carolina Panthers 14, Philadelphia Eagles 3
Jake Delhomme and Donovan McNabb
2004–05 Philadelphia Eagles 27, Atlanta Falcons 10
Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick
2005–06 Seattle Seahawks 34, Carolina Panthers 14
Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme
2006–07 Chicago Bears 39, New Orleans Saints 14
Rex Grossman and Drew Brees
2007–08 New York Giants 23, Green Bay Packers 20
*Eli Manning and Brett Farve
2008–09 Arizona Cardinals 32, Philadelphia Eagles 25
Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb
2009–10 Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
Brett Farve and Drew Brees

MAKING IT TO THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

There is room for interpretation regarding who is or isn’t elite. But in the AFC, of the 20 quarterbacks playing, I found only 13 of them to be elite. Gannon and McNair were elite at that time, Brady was born elite as per his decade CV, Rothlisberger was not elite until 2007, Peyton is the best ever, and Sanchez is not elite right now. 13 of 20 = 65%.

In the NFC, I said 14 of 20 were elite. McNabb has always been elite as per his FIVE go-rounds, Warner might in fact be Christ walking the earth as a mortal, you know in your heart Vick was there in 2004, Hasselbeck (Hassel-Gren) was great in 2005, and I consider Manning elite based on the 2007 season and overall pedigree. (Manning is definitely suspect, I can admit that.) 14 of 20 = 70%.

Taken as a whole, 27 of 40 quarterbacks PLAYING IN THAT GAME were elite: 27 of 40 = 67.5%

In the games completed, of the 18 of 36 who WON THAT GAME, 12 were elite: 12 of 18 = 66.6%

(One could pick a bone regarding how the percentages are affected when a slappy played a slappy or when an elite played an elite. It should be noted that when a slappy played an elite, and there were 7 of those games, the elite won 5 times: 5 of 7 = 71%)

MAKING TO THE SUPER BOWL

The preceding set up the following Super Bowl matchups:

(* = winner )

2000 *Dilfer vs. Collins
2001 *Brady vs Warner
2002 Gannon vs *Johnson
2003 *Brady vs. Delhomme
2004 *Brady vs. McNabb
2005 *Rothlisberger vs. Hasselbeck
2006 *Manning vs, Grossman
2007 Brady vs. *Manning
2008 *Rothisberger vs. Warner

12 of the 18 quarterbacks PLAYING IN THAT GAME were elite: 12 of 18 = 66.6%

Of the 9 who WON THAT GAME, 6 were elite: 6 of 9 = 66.6%

So it would appear that slappies, or, average quarterbacks like Kyle Orton, have a much better chance than two in ten of making a conference championship, a Super Bowl, or winning the Super Bowl. In fact, it’s the same chance across the board:

1 of 3 … OR … an elite quarterback gets it done only 2/3rds of the time.

A full third for the slappies? I’ll take those odds, I’ll temper my negativity, and I’ll give Pincers the debate team point when he says: “I think there’s also a level below that where you say, ‘These guys all have really good quarterbacks who win games and are very functional and do the things that their team needs them to do to win games and win championships.’”

With respect to Orton, he’s average to the core. He’s got average ability, Pincers keeps the clamps on him, the system was in shambles this year. However, what’s to say he can’t have an anomaly year like Hasselbeck in 2005 or Eli Manning in 2007. Who says Pincers cant build on his defense a bit more and take that thing into a higher classification. Delhomme and Collins had great defenses but they were not in the same class as Grossman’s, Johnson’s or Dilfer’s.

Of course, all this optimism doesn’t address two (well, three) harsh realities. One, obviously our standards in the Bronco Community have hit the cellar. Out standards are currently locked down there. Our standards are salvaging frozen goods from the freezer and guzzling wine as a coping mechanism. It’s really quite sad of them. Second, one-third sure as hell aint as good as two-thirds. It’s twice as less likely. Thus, Orton either needs to start hitting a Roids/HGH cocktail or Pincers better figure out when the next franchise QB is coming down the pike.

The third harsh reality? Note the past nine Super Bowl QB matchups … How often did a slappy QB beat an elite QB when they go head-to-head? Twice. Before that? Gotta go back to 1987. (I wont elaborate.)

Ichiro Suzuki: a career .333 hitter ... 1/3 of the time he gets a hit every time